Modifying EVS source and adding the Ignorance Score.

The Ensemble Verification System (EVS) is an open-source java software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological variables. However, even though it comes with a variety of verification metrics to choose from, it lacks the Ignorance Score, a measure which I find one of the easiest to interpret and communicate to forecast users.

The Ignorance Score measures the compressed data required for a forecasting system to represent the truth (observation). In other words, it quantifies the amount of information that a system is lacking. In that way, a user is able to know that the more the above information the worse the forecast, while the forecaster can spot which aspect(s) of her forecasting system contains most of the information.

Thanks to its tight code structure (packages/classes), EVS allows for adding a new verification metric with little code development. Specifically, two new java classes have to be added, namely the IgnoranceScore.class and IgnoranceScorePlot.class, while the VerificationB.class and ThresholdMetricStore.class have to be modified accordingly.

My modified EVS can be downloaded as .jar file here: