Benjamin Franklin once wrote: “…but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes“. Recently, I finished reading a book (the 3rd on the list below) regarding uncertainty in one’s everyday life and how can an individual quantify risks, make sense out of probabilities, and make good predictions about her/his future. I figured out that […]
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Ireland – November 2014 rainfall.
As part of my research project at Deltares, I am currently working on a flood forecasting system for Ireland and specifically the Suir river. For that, I am using re-analysis rainfall data from the Irish Meteorological Service. In the video below, you can take a look inside a flood forecasting and early warning system. It […]
The EnsPy toolbox.
Lately, I have been searching for Python modules that can help me work easily and effectively with ensemble forecasts data. And by “work”, I mean read and visualize ensembles in a proper way, as well as extract useful information e.g. what is the probability of streamflow being over a threshold on a specific day? Apparently, after […]
A conceptual HBV hydrologic model written in R.
A while ago, I stumbled upon an interesting paper* where the authors presented a conceptual HBV hydrologic model. This model, which is basically a modification of the original HBV model developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), takes as input the daily precipitation and temperature and turns this information in simulated streamflow. The […]
Modifying EVS source and adding the Ignorance Score.
The Ensemble Verification System (EVS) is an open-source java software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological variables. However, even though it comes with a variety of verification metrics to choose from, it lacks the Ignorance Score, a measure which I find one of the easiest to interpret and communicate to forecast users. The Ignorance […]
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