In this post, I’m gonna provide an introductory tutorial for fitting an extreme value distribution via Bayesian analysis with Stan and its R interface, rstan. Stan is a probabilistic programming language written in C++ suitable for Bayesian inference and rstan is a package providing access to Stan thru R. More about Stan can be found […]
RRIr: R scripts for the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation model.
The last couple of months I have been following the newsletter and activities of ICHARM i.e., the International Centre for Hazard Assessment and Risk Management. ICHARM, situated in Japan, is one of the Water Centers under the auspices of UNESCO which conduct research on water-related disasters, among others. Below is a picture from their 2021 […]
Books about uncertainty.
Benjamin Franklin once wrote: “…but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes“. Recently, I finished reading a book (the 3rd on the list below from left to right) regarding uncertainty in one’s everyday life and how can an individual quantify risks, make sense out of probabilities, and make good predictions about her/his future. […]
Ireland – November 2014 rainfall.
As part of my research project at Deltares, I am currently working on a flood forecasting system for Ireland and specifically the Suir river. For that, I am using re-analysis rainfall data from the Irish Meteorological Service. In the video below, you can take a look inside a flood forecasting and early warning system. It […]
The EnsPy toolbox.
Lately, I have been searching for Python modules that can help me work easily and effectively with ensemble forecasts data. And by “work”, I mean read and visualize ensembles in a proper way, as well as extract useful information e.g. what is the probability of streamflow being over a threshold on a specific day? Apparently, after […]